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From: Иван
Date: 14 Aug 2007
Time: 16:03:26 -0500
Remote Name: 80.245.114.116
Нефтяные вышки. Оптом и в розницу, производительность - 5000 гигабарелей в час. Самовывоз на оленях из якутии. Тел 123-45-67
From: Rudy Herrmann
Date: 17 Nov 2003
Time: 09:40:46 -0600
Remote Name: 205.188.209.109
Let me share some comments from Pat Gavula at York. He writes, "One concept that I can apply is using a spreadsheet to conduct a sensitivity analysis on the project. Assumptions can be tested to determine how critical they are to the success of the project. The assumptions that make a significant difference in the results can be investigated further to validate or disprove them." Pat does a nice job of linking strategy with action in his comments above. I'd like to add two "real world" examples that support Pat's keen insight. Those of you with experience in the energy services and equipment sector are aware of the volatility in that sector based on energy prices, rig count, etc... Many industry participants went through an especially excrutiating "collapse" during the mid-1980's. The "survivors" (including two Dover Resources companies in the sucker rod business: Norris and Alberta Oil Tool) learned to do a much more effective job of matching production rates with final demand, avoiding the costly inventory build up's associated with past industry slow downs. This is an example of companies in an industry realizing that "cash is king" in their respective business models, and then fine-tuning their operations to respond to that reality. Another example comes from the rental car industry in the wake of the tragedy of September 11, 2001. Tulsa-based DollarThrifty responded immediately by cutting costs and reducing the size of their fleet. As a result, they maintained stronger profitability and cash flow during the depths of the industry recession and are now poised very well to participate as the market recovers. DollarThrifty clearly understood their business model, what assumptions were critical, the impact of changes in their external environment through sensitivity analysis, and were prepared to act decisively. Business models DO matter! Regards, Rudy Herrmann